A University of Saskatchewan political scientist says the federal election is too close to call, but Dr. Greg Poelzer is convinced there will be some major changes in Saskatchewan.
He predicts one of the toughest fights will be in the province’s biggest riding, Desnethe-Missinippi-Churchill River.
“I think it is going to be one of the most competitive races in Saskatchewan,” he says.
There are three high-profile candidates in the large, northern riding: the incumbent Rob Clarke of the Conservatives, the Liberal candidate — former FSIN chief Lawrence Joseph — and the NDP’s Georgina Jolibois, who is the mayor of La Loche and the chair of New North.
Poelzer says if there is a high voter turnout, the results will favour Joseph. He says if the voter turnout is low, it will help Clarke. Poelzer says Jolibois is a wild card and could also take the riding.
The Green Party of Canada and the Libertarian Party of Canada are also running candidates in the riding — Warren Koch will represent the Greens and Raymond Beament is running for the Libertarians.
Poelzer says unlike most ridings in Canada, northern ridings are more about the candidate than the party.
“The person in a northern riding is first and the party affiliation is second, which is different from the rest of Canada,” he says. “And you see that right across Canada.”
Provincially, the Conservatives hold 13 of the 14 ridings, with Ralph Goodale the lone Liberal in Regina-Wascana. Poelzer says up to four ridings could go Liberal, and up to three could go NDP after the October 19 election.
He also says the Aboriginal vote could play a key role in the election outcome.
“To be brutally honest, if the First Nation and Metis vote across Canada was mobilized, it would determine who actually forms government,” he says.
Poelzer says redistribution will also play a role in how the election plays out with many ridings that were once an urban-rural split now completely urban or rural. He says that will have an impact on how well the Tories do in Saskatoon and Regina.